Zimbabwe Warns of Possible El Niño Conditions for 2026/27 Rainy Season

The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) says there is a high probability that an El Niño weather pattern could develop during the 2026/27 rainy season, raising concerns over possible below-normal rainfall across the country.

In a statement, the MSD said global climate forecasting centres are indicating an 88 to 94 percent chance of an El Niño event forming later this year.

The department stressed that forecasts made this early remain uncertain due to what scientists call the “spring predictability barrier,” where oceanic and atmospheric conditions can still change significantly before the rainy season begins.

The MSD said it has not yet released its official seasonal forecast and urged farmers, businesses and the public not to make final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on the preliminary projections.

Zimbabwe’s official national climate outlook is expected in August 2026 after the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), where more recent scientific data will be analysed to provide a clearer picture of the upcoming season.

Meanwhile, the department has encouraged farmers and communities to continue normal preparations for the season while adopting climate-smart measures such as water conservation and the use of drought-tolerant seed varieties.